Projections of Educational Attainment And Its Development Impacts For Scenarios Of Full and Partial Progress Towards Universal Upper Secondary Schooling. A Report for The International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity

Barakat, B. (2016). Projections of Educational Attainment And Its Development Impacts For Scenarios Of Full and Partial Progress Towards Universal Upper Secondary Schooling. A Report for The International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity. IIASA Report. Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

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Abstract

It is known that education has strong linkages with virtually all other dimensions of sustainable development, both direct and indirect. Accordingly, trajectories of educational progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) education targets are not only of interest on their own terms, but also in terms of their implications for other development outcomes. At the same time, it is clear that for most current low-income countries, meeting the target of universal upper secondary schooling by 2030 outright would require entirely unprecedented rates of expansion that would be extremely challenging to achieve at best. It is highly relevant, therefore, to compare the potential consequences of different scenarios of educational expansion for other development outcomes. Such educational trajectories themselves, like the target, are specified in terms of the participation of school-age children. Many, if not most, of the consequences are determined by the improved education profile of the adult population, however, from whose ranks parents and workers, patients and doctors are drawn. Accordingly, modelling health and economic consequences of educational expansion requires the ability to generate general population projections consistent with given trajectories of educational expansion. The Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital is a leading centre of expertise in this area and has a proven track record of providing such projections to large-scale international research and policy analysis efforts, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ICCP).

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