The Natural Growth Path of Potential Output

Coen, R.M. & Hickman, B.G. (1980). The Natural Growth Path of Potential Output. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-80-132

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Abstract

The research conducted in many Programs and Areas at IIASA-- such as the Energy Program, the Food and Agriculture Program, and the Human Settlements and Services Area --is often concerned with projections of economic growth. Since 1978, the Task Economic Modeling within System and Decision Sciences Area has contributed to these and related issues through investigations of different methodologies of projecting economic growth. This paper addresses the important question of defining natural growth paths of potential output of an economy, obtained under the assumptions of nearly full employment, with demographic projections of changes in the labour force and projections of average labour productivity being the main driving forces of growth. Many of the results contained in this paper are based on investigations conducted by the authors over a number of years before coming to IIASA; however many of the computational experiments and final conclusions reported here were prepared during their stay with the System and Decision Sciences Area in 1979-80.

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