The Effects of Uncertainty in Generation Expansion Planning - A Review of Methods and Experiences

Tsuji, K. (1980). The Effects of Uncertainty in Generation Expansion Planning - A Review of Methods and Experiences. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-80-116

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Abstract

In the workshop "Size and Productive Efficiency--The Wider Implications" which was held at IIASA in June 1979, participants have raised an issue concerned with the effects of future uncertainties on the decisions on size. The issue was pointed out from electricity industry where the recent trend of construction of larger plants have made the lead time longer and longer, making the demand forecast more uncertain than ever. However, the problem is common to all industries which involve high capital investments for a new plant to be installed.

In order to improve our understanding of the effects of uncertainty we have carried out a state-of-the-art review on this subject in electricity generation where the most sophisticated expansion planning models and methodologies are available and where a considerable amount of reported experience on this subject exists. This paper presents the results of this review.

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