Climatic Change and the Carbon Wealth of Nations

Ausubel, J.H. (1980). Climatic Change and the Carbon Wealth of Nations. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-80-075

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Abstract

A great deal of research is currently going into simulating the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate. This research considers the direct climatic effects of steadily rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and usually assumes a rate of carbon dioxide increase from burning of fossil fuels which will lead to a doubling of airborne concentrations by some time in the first half of the twenty-first century. Such a rate is consistent with observations of carbon dioxide increases in the recent past, but it also depends crucially on implicit assumptions about the future functioning of the world economy. But, rather than make assumptions about the world economy, one can try to work backward from the carbon dioxide demanded for a mid-twenty-first century climatic change toward the physical carbon resources. Where in the earth will the carbon come from? How is it distributed with respect to present national and regional boundaries? Can this tell us something about the likelihood of realization of a CO2 problem? About the possibilities for its control? And, when combined with estimates of past contribution by geopolitical entities, does it tell us anything about responsibility for a CO2-induced climatic change?

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