A Life-Cycle Model of Career Experience: The American Academic Labour Force

Cornford, T. (1980). A Life-Cycle Model of Career Experience: The American Academic Labour Force. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-80-065

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Abstract

The paper presents a deterministic simulation of career experience in the American university labour force. The model is used to investigate the difference in career experience for entrants to the profession in the years from 1962 to 1978, taking into account the size, structure and age distribution of the profession, as well as the relative ability of entrants. An investigation is also made of the effects of various retirement policies.

The results of the study show that there will be a considerable difference in career advancement for people starting during this time period. The average person entering the profession in the early 1960s can in general expect to reach the rank of associate Professor roughly 5 years earlier than his colleague entering 10 years later. The results also show the clear and substantial role of ability in determining the career profile. 1970s entrants of high ability start their careers with considerable delay, but after 23 years experience they are relatively less delayed, reaching a full professorship only 2 years later than their older colleagues.

An investigation of retirement policies, both to prolong working life and to shorten it, shows that people in the profession in their first twenty or thirty years have little to fear or gain from such policies. The effect in either case is of very small magnitude and is far outweighed by the temporal effects, themselves the result of growth policies and the age distribution of the profession members.

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