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Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7176-4604, & Schellnhuber, H.J.
(2017).
A roadmap for rapid decarbonization.
Science 355 (6331) 1269-1271. 10.1126/science.aah3443.
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Abstract
Although the Paris Agreement's goals (1) are aligned with science (2) and can, in principle, be technically and economically achieved (3), alarming inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national commitments. Despite progress during the 2016 Marrakech climate negotiations, long-term goals can be trumped by political short-termism. Following the Agreement, which became international law earlier than expected, several countries published mid-century decarbonization strategies, with more due soon. Model-based decarbonization assessments (4) and scenarios often struggle to capture transformative change and the dynamics associated with it: disruption, innovation, and nonlinear change in human behavior. For example, in just 2 years, China's coal use swung from 3.7% growth in 2013 to a decline of 3.7% in 2015 (5). To harness these dynamics and to calibrate for short-term realpolitik, we propose framing the decarbonization challenge in terms of a global decadal roadmap based on a simple heuristic—a “carbon law”—of halving gross anthropogenic carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions every decade. Complemented by immediately instigated, scalable carbon removal and efforts to ramp down land-use CO2 emissions, this can lead to net-zero emissions around mid-century, a path necessary to limit warming to well below 2°C.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Research Programs: | Energy (ENE) |
| Depositing User: | Luke Kirwan |
| Date Deposited: | 24 Mar 2017 07:53 |
| Last Modified: | 26 Jan 2022 11:46 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/14498 |
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