Model Specifications for Analyzing the Role and Long-Run Impacts of Resources, the Environment, and Technological Change on the Food Production System

Taylor, C.R. (1980). Model Specifications for Analyzing the Role and Long-Run Impacts of Resources, the Environment, and Technological Change on the Food Production System. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-80-016

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Abstract

A recent working paper by Pierre Crosson ("Resources, Technology and Environment in Agricultural Development." WP-79-103, October 1979) provides an intellectual background for research being undertaken by FAP on "Limits and Consequences of Food Production Technologies". The primary focus of this research effort will be on developing a set of models that will increase understanding of the short and long-run impacts of policies on the resources-technology-environment (R-T-E) system in agricultural production.

This paper briefly sketches two model specifications that could be used to analyze the R-T-E issues discussed by Crosson. One model is specified to determine the "socially" optimal allocation of resources over time under R-T-E constraints, while the second model is specified to trace out the temporal R-T-E effects of agricultural producers' decisions under various R-T-E policies and assumptions. Both models are rather ambitious from a computational viewpoint and in terms of data requirements. It is suggested that initial modeling efforts focus on a few regions or watersheds, rather than countries. Then, as experience is gained with these small area models and information developed about the extremely complex R-T-E constraints, the modeling effort could be expanded to country models. Finally, country models could be linked to form a world R-T-E model.

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