Demographic change and the drivers of future migration into Europe. Approach, methodology and work plan of the JRC/IIASA Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration

Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 & Belanger, A. (2017). Demographic change and the drivers of future migration into Europe. Approach, methodology and work plan of the JRC/IIASA Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration. IIASA Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA

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Abstract

This document describes the research approach, methodology and work plan of the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration that was established in 2016 as a collaboration been IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and JRC (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission). This collaboration is scheduled for three years and each side provides the funding of five post-doctoral researchers. Team members will be jointly supervised and be stationed in Ispra and at IIASA with strong interactions.
The new Centre will take a multi-dimensional demographic approach to assess the consequences of alternative future population and migration trends in Europe as well as in the main regions of origin for migration into Europe. The Centre will study push and pull factors, different kinds of migration streams as well as the impact of migration flows for Europe in terms of population aging and the productivity of Europe’s labor force over the coming decades. This will be done in terms of macro-level modelling including population scenarios by age, sex, level of education and labor force participation for all EU member states as well as micro-simulation models with more characteristics in order to study the integration of migrants. Scenarios by age, sex and level of education will also be done for potential sending countries in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe and combined with aspects of socio-economic and environmental change following the narratives of the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) to assess possible future push factors. Special attention is given to the possible impacts of climate change on migration.
The main output documents will be a set of updated population scenarios by age, sex and level of education following the approach of the OUP volume “World Population and 4uman Capital in the 21st Century” (Lutz et al. 2014) to be produced by the end of 2017 and a scientific book with the main conclusion concerning alternative migration and integration scenarios to be finalized in late 2018 to serve as input for the policy planning of the new incoming European Commission. In addition the publication of a number of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles is foreseen.

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