Basic Problems of Long-Term Inference into the Future

Pawlowski, Z. (1980). Basic Problems of Long-Term Inference into the Future. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-80-011

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Abstract

Water resource systems have been an important part of resources and environment related research at IIASA since its inception. As demands for water increase relative to supply, the intensity and efficiency of water resources management must be developed further. This in turn requires an increase in the degree of detail and sophistication of the analysis, including economic, social and environmental evaluation of water resources development alternatives aided by application of mathematical modeling techniques, to generate inputs for planning, design, and operational decisions.

During the year of 1978 it was decided that parallel to the continuation of demand studies, an attempt would be made to integrate the results of our studies on water demands with water supply considerations. This new task was named "Regional Water Management" (Task 1, Resources and Environment Area).

Although this paper does not refer explicitly to water resources, it is concerned with the problems of primary importance to water resources planning. In several countries very significant capital investments are being made and contemplated for the future for water supply projects of increasing size. The purpose of these projects is to satisfy future water demands which often are estimated (predicted) on the basis of statistically derived demand relationships.

The paper examines some of the major problems and difficulties involved in the use of statistically derived relationships for long-term inference into the future.

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