Emission pathways to achieve 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets

Su, X., Takahashi, K., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Hasegawa, T., Tanaka, K., Kato, E., Shiogama, H., Masui, T., & Emori, S. (2017). Emission pathways to achieve 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets. Earth's Future 1-13. 10.1002/2016EF000492.

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Abstract

We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets by considering the abatement potentials of a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the inter-temporal dynamic optimization model DICE-2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new marginal abatement cost curve derived under moderate assumptions regarding future socioeconomic development—the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) scenario. Second, we addressed emission abatement for not only industrial CO2 but also land-use CO2, CH4, N2O, halogenated gases, CO, volatile organic compounds, SOx, NOx, black carbon and organic carbon. Third, we improved the treatment of the non-CO2 components in the climate module based on MAGICC 6.0. We obtained the following findings: (1) It is important to address the individual emissions in an analysis of low stabilization scenarios because abating land-use CO2, non-CO2 and aerosol emissions also contributes to maintaining a low level of radiative forcing and substantially affects the climate costs. (2) The 2.0°C target can be efficiently reached under the assumptions of the SSP2 scenario. (3) The 1.5°C target can be met with early deep cuts under the assumption of a temperature overshoot, and it will triple the carbon price and double the mitigation cost compared with the 2.0°C case.

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