Dynamic Problems of Evolution

Peschel, M., Mende, W., Ahlberendt, N., Voigt, M., & Grote, U. (1980). Dynamic Problems of Evolution. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-80-001

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Abstract

Evolution and growth of natural and man-made processes have impressed human beings from the very beginning. What is evolution? Is it the passage from an initial to a higher stage? What does "higher" mean in a world of many objectives? Is "higher" bound to the existence of monotonous indicators like entropy, or is it "gambling" within a predetermined combinatoric multifold of possibilities?

Questions of this kind arise from the phenomena in our environment, from the spring-off of new species, but also from processes in our man-made technological world. How is the transition of basic innovation to technology and use of the corresponding products by society, what forecast can be made from increasing CO2, in the atmosphere on the impact on climate, from features of seismologic waves on future events etc. That means there is a strong connection between evolution processes and the emphasis of systems analysis as a help for strategic actions.

This paper deals with general considerations about possible growth mechanisms as a base for creating valid growth models. But the main goal is to show how the parameters in growth models can be estimated using on one hand a fuzzy approach together with vector optimization and on the other hand a Bayesian approach. It can be seen that both approaches are useful and applicable and we get informations from one approach which the other one cannot give us. We studied already the growth of cracks in materials, processes well described in [10]. Preliminary results are contained in [13].

Research will be continued to identify the superposition of driving forces and of coupled systems in which oscillations can arise because of time delays between their driving-force pulses.

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