Probabilistic Population Aging

Sanderson, W., Scherbov, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0881-1073, & Gerland, P. (2017). Probabilistic Population Aging. PLoS ONE 12 (6) e0179171. 10.1371/journal.pone.0179171.

Preview

Text journal.pone.0179171.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (5MB) | Preview

Abstract

We merge two methodologies, prospective measures of population aging and probabilistic population forecasts. We compare the speed of change and variability in forecasts of the old age dependency ratio and the prospective old age dependency ratio as well as the same comparison for the median age and the prospective median age. While conventional measures of population aging are computed on the basis of the number of years people have already lived, prospective measures are computed also taking account of the expected number of years they have left to live. Those remaining life expectancies change over time and differ from place to place. We compare the probabilistic distributions of the conventional and prospective measures using examples from China, Germany, Iran, and the United States. The changes over time and the variability of the prospective indicators are smaller than those that are observed in the conventional ones. A wide variety of new results emerge from the combination of methodologies. For example, for Germany, Iran, and the United States the likelihood that the prospective median age of the population in 2098 will be lower than it is today is close to 100 percent.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	World Population (POP)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	21 Jun 2017 17:47
Last Modified:	27 Aug 2021 17:29
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/14681

Actions (login required)

View Item