Possible Consequences of the Intensive Computerization of Industrial Production and Management: A Scenario and Annotated Bibliography

Hatvany, J. (1980). Possible Consequences of the Intensive Computerization of Industrial Production and Management: A Scenario and Annotated Bibliography. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-80-025

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Abstract

This scenario was written in 1978 by J. Hatvany of the Computer and Automation Institute, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and an IIASA alumnus. It was intended as an input to the Institute's own thinking about a future research program. It is just one scenario in a wide spectrum that needs to be taken into consideration in future studies when studying the possible impact of computer developments on management, organization and society.

J. Hatvany has a broad perspective on societal development. In the introduction of this report he commits himself to the "school" of futurologists following Daniel Bell in their investigations of the "post industrial society." Herman Kahn is another major influence. He heavily opposes the other school as advocated by Schumacher, Schwartz, and others.

With this perspective, he investigates his scenario of the future characterized by intensive computerization of industrial production and management with an emphasis on far-reaching vertical integration of computer use in organizations, industry and society. He sees different characteristics in this report within discrete manufacturing and in continuous processes. Managers will have to adapt smoothly into a larger hierarchical power structure than ever before -- just as any other component of the gigantic system. The author finds the key to his future scenario in the development of powerful systems analysis and synthesis tools to design highly integrated and a far-reaching computerized control system encompassing industry and societal planning. He holds that such a development must be made through international cooperation.

In the "factory of the future" the author paints a picture of a super-developed society based on such computerized procedures. He dwells on the societal effects within this scenario; on decision-making, education, employment, human settlements, environment, resources, R&D and monetary circumstances. He sees the society where money itself will gradually recede from the everyday citizen level sphere to the accounting and planning of society only.

An extensive bibliography partially annotated with the author's values and comments concludes the report.

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