Decadal evolution of ship emissions in China from 2004 to 2013 by using an integrated AIS-based approach and projection to 2040

Li, C., Borken-Kleefeld, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5465-8559, Zheng, J., Yuan, Z., Ou, J., Li, Y., Wang, Y., & Xu, Y. (2018). Decadal evolution of ship emissions in China from 2004 to 2013 by using an integrated AIS-based approach and projection to 2040. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18 (8) 6075-6093. 10.5194/acp-18-6075-2018.

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Abstract

Ship emissions contribute significantly to air pollution and pose health risks to residents of coastal areas in China, but the current accounting remains incomplete and coarse due to data availability and inaccuracy in estimation method. In this study, an Automatic Identification System (AIS)-based integrated approach was developed to address this problem. This approach utilized detailed information from AIS and cargo turnover and the number of vessels calling information, thereby capable of quantifying sectoral contributions by fuel types and emissions from ports, rivers, coastal and over-the-horizon ship traffic. Based upon the established methodology, ship emissions in China from 2004 to 2013 were estimated, and those to 2040 in every five year interval under different control scenarios were projected. Results showed that for the area within 200 nautical miles (Nm) of the Chinese coast, SO 2 , NO x , CO, PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions in 2013 were 1010, 1443, 118, 107, 87 and 67 kt/yr, respectively, which doubled over these ten years. Ship source contributed ~ 10 % to the total SO 2 and NO x emissions in the coastal provinces of China. Emissions from the proposed Domestic Emission Control Areas (DECAs) within 12 Nm constituted approximately 40 % of the all ship emissions along the Chinese coast, and this percentage would double when the scope is extended to 100 Nm. Ship emissions in ports accounted for about one quarter of the total emissions within 200 Nm, within which nearly 80 % of the emissions were concentrated in the top ten busiest ports of China. SO 2 emissions could be reduced by 80 % in 2020 under 0.5 % global sulfur cap policy. In comparison, a similar reduction of NO x emissions would require significant technological change and would likely take several decades. This study provides solid scientific support for ship emissions control policy-making in China. It is suggested to investigate and monitor the emissions from the shipping sector in more detail in the future.

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