Structural change as a key component for agricultural non-CO2 mitigation efforts

Frank, S. ORCID:, Beach, R., Havlik, P. ORCID:, Valin, H. ORCID:, Herrero, M., Mosnier, A., Hasegawa, T., Creason, J., et al. (2018). Structural change as a key component for agricultural non-CO2 mitigation efforts. Nature Communications 9 (1) 10.1038/s41467-018-03489-1.

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Project: Exploring the Future of Global Food and Nutrition Security (FOODSECURE, FP7 290693), Metrics, Models and Foresight for European Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security (SUSFANS, H2020 633692), Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing (CD-LINKS, H2020 642147), GLOBIOM


Agriculture is the single largest source of anthropogenic non-carbon dioxide (non-CO2) emissions. Reaching the climate target of the Paris Agreement will require significant emission reductions across sectors by 2030 and continued efforts thereafter. Here we show that the economic potential of non-CO2 emissions reductions from agriculture is up to four times as high as previously estimated. In fact, we find that agriculture could achieve already at a carbon price of 25 $/tCO2eq non-CO2 reductions of around 1 GtCO2eq/year by 2030 mainly through the adoption of technical and structural mitigation options. At 100 $/tCO2eq agriculture could even provide non-CO2 reductions of 2.6 GtCO2eq/year in 2050 including demand side efforts. Immediate action to favor the widespread adoption of technical options in developed countries together with productivity increases through structural changes in developing countries is needed to move agriculture on track with a 2 °C climate stabilization pathway.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Agriculture; Carbon cycle; Climate-change mitigation
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 13 Mar 2018 10:29
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:30

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