Impacts of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in Asia

Purohit, Pallav ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7265-6960, Höglund-Isaksson, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7514-3135, & Wagner, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3429-2374 (2018). Impacts of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in Asia. IIASA Report. Laxenburg, Austria

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Abstract

The Montreal Protocol (UNEP, 2007) has successfully worked to phase out the use of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) primarily by substituting the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochloroflourocarbons (HCFCs) with hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in various sectors such as refrigeration, air-conditioning, aerosols, fire extinguishers and foam blowing. As well, HFC-23 is generated as a by-product of HCFC-22 production for feedstock and emissive use. The high Global Warming Potentials (GWP) of HFCs replacing ODSs is a climate concern and the reason behind the Kigali Amendment of the Montreal Protocol adopted during the 28th Meeting of the Parties 8-14 October 2016 in Kigali, Rwanda (UNEP, 2016a) to phase-down the use of HFCs globally by 2050. HFC emissions have increased significantly in recent years and can without a targeted HFC phase-down be expected to rise further in response to increased demand for cooling services and the phase-out of ODSs. The focus of this study is to analyze the implications on emissions and co-benefits like electricity savings of meeting the HFC phase-down targets in Asian countries set out in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol.
We develop baseline and alternative policy scenarios for Asian countries using the HFC module of the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model (http://gains.iiasa.ac.at) framework developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and described in Purohit and Höglund-Isaksson (2017).
The report is structured as follows: Section 2 briefly explains different policy scenarios analyzed in this study. Section 3 highlights key control measures adopted by Asian countries. Section 4 presents estimated HFC emissions in different policy scenarios along with mitigation potentials and discusses possible co-benefits associated with mitigation. Section 5 concludes key findings and policy recommendations.

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