Two Global Scenarios: The Evolution of Energy Use and the Economy to 2030

Chant, V.G. (1981). Two Global Scenarios: The Evolution of Energy Use and the Economy to 2030. IIASA Research Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-81-035

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Abstract

"Energy in a Finite World: A Global Systems Analysis" (Ballinger, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1981, 880 pages) documents the seven-year study of the future balance of energy supply and demand made by the IIASA Energy Systems Program. Part IV of this book, "Balancing Supply and Demand: The Quantitative Analysis," presents results based on two scenarios of global and regional development; these scenarios specify population growth, aggregate economic development in five sectors, and detailed energy use and supply for seven global regions. This report outlines how these scenarios were derived and interprets their quantitative projections in terms of energy-price, energy-income, and substitution elasticities and technological development, the data used being those also used in the book.

This report defines the scenarios in terms of population, gross-domestic-product, and primary and final energy-use projections in sufficient detail for the economic interpretation analysis; then, for all seven regions, it examines the energy linkage in the aggregate in terms of energy use per unit of GDP and the energy-GDP elasticity, after which it defines an economic framework and simple aggregate models for interpreting the scenario projections. One model allows for separating the effects of energy prices and energy growth on energy requirements; another, based on a production-function formulation, allows one to examine technological development and the substitution of nonenergy for energy inputs primarily in the industrial sector. Finally, the report defines appropriate measure of energy price increases over the projection period and uses them, along with the economic models, to analyze the scenarios in economic terms.

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