Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system

Kim, Y.J. & Wilson, C. ORCID: (2019). Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system. Energy Strategy Reviews 24 279-299. 10.1016/j.esr.2019.04.012.

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Project: Metrics, Models and Foresight for Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure and Efficient Energy Innovation (SET-Nav, H2020 691843), Social Influence and Disruptive Low Carbon Innovations (SILCI, H2020 678799)


We develop a novel approach for quantitatively analysing future storylines of change by combining econometric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for four different storylines of change in the EU's energy innovation system. We explore impacts on three key innovation outcomes: patenting (innovation), co-invention (collaboration), and technology cost reduction (diffusion). We find that diverse mixes of policy instruments stimulate collaborative innovation activity. We find that both RD&D expenditure and trade imports support knowledge generation and exchange, and that these relationships are largely robust to future uncertainty. Conversely, we find that policy durability and stability are only weakly linked to innovation outcomes, suggesting that adaptive policy responding to rapidly changing innovation environments should play an important part of the EU's energy future.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Econometric analysis; Energy technology innovation system; Monte Carlo simulation; Scenario analysis
Research Programs: Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 26 Apr 2019 07:25
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:31

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