A Framework for Global Twenty-First Century Scenarios and Models of Biological Invasions

Lenzner, B., Leclere, D., Franklin, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0376-4140, Seebens, H., Roura-Pascual, N., Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769, Dullinger, S., & Essl, F. (2019). A Framework for Global Twenty-First Century Scenarios and Models of Biological Invasions. BioScience 69 (9) 697-710. 10.1093/biosci/biz070.

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Project: Effects of phosphorus limitations on Life, Earth system and Society (IMBALANCE-P, FP7 610028), Stimulating Innovation for Global Monitoring of Agriculture and its Impact on the Environment in support of GEOGLAM (SIGMA, FP7 603719)


Biological invasions have emerged as an eminent feature of global change, with substantial impacts on the environment and human livelihoods. Current research demonstrates that the numbers and impacts of alien species are rising unabatedly. At the same time, we lack a thorough understanding of potential future trajectories for the decades to come. With the recent establishment of comprehensive global databases, it is, for the first time, feasible to develop and quantify future scenarios of biological invasions. Therefore, we propose a conceptual framework for how to develop alien species scenarios for the twenty-first century and how to identify relevant steps and challenges along the way. The concept will be important to inform research, policy, stakeholders, and the general public. Furthermore, we call for the scientific community to join forces and to operationalize the framework for scenarios and models of biological invasions to develop an important baseline for understanding and managing future biological invasions.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: alien species, impacts, management, projections, scenarios
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 15 Jul 2019 13:45
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:31
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/15993

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