A second-order-based decision tool for evaluating decisions under conditions of severe uncertainty

Danielson, M., Ekenberg, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0665-1889, & Larsson, A. (2020). A second-order-based decision tool for evaluating decisions under conditions of severe uncertainty. Knowledge-Based System 191 e105219. 10.1016/j.knosys.2019.105219.

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Abstract

The requirement to assign precise numerical values to model entities such as criteria weights, probabilities, and utilities is too strong in most real-life decision situations, and hence alternative representations and evaluation mechanisms are important to consider. In this paper, we discuss the DecideIT 3.0 state-of-the-art software decision tool and demonstrate its functionality using a real-life case. The tool is based on a belief mass interpretation of the decision information, where the components are imprecise by means of intervals and qualitative estimates, and we discuss how multiplicative and additive aggregations influence the resulting distribution over the expected values.

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