Modelling future patterns of urbanization, residential energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Dar es Salaam with the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways

Luo, C., Posen, I.D., Hoornweg, D., & MacLean, H.L. (2020). Modelling future patterns of urbanization, residential energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Dar es Salaam with the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways. Journal of Cleaner Production 254 e119998. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.119998.

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Abstract

This paper presents three scenarios of urban growth, energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Dar es Salaam using narratives that are consistent with the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). We estimate residential energy demand and GHG emissions from 2015 to 2050 for household activities (including upstream electricity generation) and passenger (road) transport (Scopes 1 and 2). We project that by 2050, Dar es Salaam's total residential emissions would increase from 1,400 ktCO2e (in 2015) up to 25,000–33,000 ktCO2e (SSP1); 11,000–19,000 ktCO2e (SSP2); and 5,700–11,000 ktCO2e (SSP3), with ranges corresponding to different assumptions about household size. This correlates with an increase in per capita emissions from 0.2 tCO2e in 2015 to 1.5–2 tCO2e (SSP1); 0.7–1.3 tCO2e (SSP2); and 0.5–0.9 tCO2e (SSP3). Higher emissions in SSP1 (the sustainability scenario) are driven by a higher urban population in 2050 and increased energy access and electricity consumption. Through aggressive GHG mitigation policies focused on decarbonization of the electricity sector and road transport, total emissions under SSP1 can be reduced by ∼66% in 2050. Study insights aim to inform policies that identify and capture synergies between low-GHG investments and broader socio-economic development goals in Sub-Saharan African cities.

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