A Note on the Population 50 Years Hence

Ausubel, J.H. & Stoto, M.A. (1981). A Note on the Population 50 Years Hence. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-81-120

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Abstract

Attitudes toward societal planning horizons may assume that there is relatively little overlap between the population of today and the population of the future. To test this assumption a rough calculation is made of how many people who are alive today will be alive 50 years hence. The calculation is made on the basis of 3 age cohorts for a sample of 10 countries from 8 demographic categories. While the result is uncertain because of changing mortality, poor data, etc., the authors believe it is reasonably robust. About forty percent of those alive today will be alive in 50 years. This proportion includes 550 million people 15 or older. These results suggest that long planning horizons are rational from the point of view of the self-interest of the existing population. Further research into societal planning horizons would be useful.

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