Deriving Niger’s Demographic and Education Future to 2062 with Stakeholders: Which Results?

Goujon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857, Marois, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2701-6286, & Sabourin, P. (2021). Deriving Niger’s Demographic and Education Future to 2062 with Stakeholders: Which Results? Population Research and Policy Review 40 617-627. 10.1007/s11113-020-09582-y.

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Abstract

Niger has the fastest population growth in the world while being among the least developed countries. With an average fertility above seven children per woman in the last decades, rapid population growth will continue in the medium to long term representing a planning challenge for Niger's development whose actual population is likely to double within the next two decades. At the same time, socio-economic variables whether in terms of health, wealth, and education levels are lagging behind, also relatively to many countries in sub-Saharan Africa. While both demographic and education variables occupy a central position in the government strategy, they are not necessarily linked. However, the future of Niger will largely be a reflection of its ability to meet both challenges. Within a project piloted by the Ministry of Planning and funded by the United Nations Children’s Fund, we have derived together with local experts and stakeholders narratives about the possible future of Niger. These were further translated into five scenarios with assumptions about different future paths of demographic and educational development for Niger that were used to project the population, also at sub-national level, using multi-state population projection models with the aim to inform policy. This article reports some projection results related to educational and demographic developments.

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