Updated demographic SSP4 and SSP5 scenarios complementing the SSP1-3 scenarios published in 2018

K.C., S. (2020). Updated demographic SSP4 and SSP5 scenarios complementing the SSP1-3 scenarios published in 2018. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-20-016

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Abstract

The set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) contains as its “human core” a set of five demographic scenarios giving population projections by age, sex and level of education based on assumptions that are consistent with the SSP narratives. The first set of these demographic scenarios was produced in 2013 and published in 2014 with the assumptions based on a broad global expert solicitation exercise. In 2018 the projections were updated using new 2015 baseline data – instead of 2010 in the earlier version – and adjusting near-term assumptions while largely maintaining the long term assumptions. This 2018 update was only published for SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3, which are the ones mostly used in the demographic community. This paper adds the updated projections for the SSP4 and SSP5 scenarios to make the set of the updated SSPs complete.

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