The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments—Lessons from low-carbon transitions

van Vliet, O., Hanger-Kopp, S., Nikas, A., Spijker, E., Carlsen, H., Doukas, H., & Lieu, J. (2020). The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments—Lessons from low-carbon transitions. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 35 400-413. 10.1016/j.eist.2020.04.001.

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Project: Transitions pathways and risk analysis for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies (TRANSrisk, H2020 642260), Delivering on the Paris Agreement: A demand-driven, integrated assessment modelling approach (PARIS REINFORCE, H2020 820846)


Identifying the risks that could impact a low-carbon transition is a prerequisite to assessing and managing these risks. We systematically characterise risks associated with decarbonisation pathways in fifteen case studies conducted in twelve countries around the world. We find that stakeholders from business, government, NGOs, and others supplied some 40 % of these risk inputs, significantly widening the scope of risks considered by academics and experts. Overall, experts and academics consider more economic risks and assess these with quantitative methods and models, while other stakeholders consider political risks more. To avoid losing sight of risks that cannot be easily quantified and modelled, including some economic risks, impact assessment modelling should be complemented with qualitative research and active stakeholder engagement. A systematic risk elicitation facilitates communication with stakeholders, enables better risk mitigation, and increases the chance of a sustainable transition.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Stakeholders; Climate policy; Risk assessment; Low-carbon transitions; Modelling; Integrated assessment models
Research Programs: Risk & Resilience (RISK)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 07 Oct 2020 09:23
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:33

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