Multiregional Population Projection: An Analytic Approach

Liaw, K.-L. (1981). Multiregional Population Projection: An Analytic Approach. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-81-081

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Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic properties of age-by-region population systems which are projected into the future by the Rogers model with fixed age- and region-specific rates of birth, death, and interregional migration. Insights are obtained. through the analytic solution of the mathematical model.

To make the analytic solution of the Rogers model understandable this paper considers the Rogers model as a multiregional generalization, of the classical Leslie model and then makes a useful synthesis of the early findings about the dynamic properties of single-region population systems and the well-known facts about a pure migration matrix.

The Rogers model is applied to three real-world systems: the Swedish female population observed in 1974, the Soviet population of both sexes observed in 1974, and the female population of Great Britain observed in 1970. Common as well as distinct dynamic properties of the three systems are found.

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