Towards the integration of societal factors in large-scale modeling of nature-based solutions

Schulte, I. (2020). Towards the integration of societal factors in large-scale modeling of nature-based solutions. IIASA YSSP Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA

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Abstract

The importance of societal aspects in the implementation of climate interventions, such as the restoration of natural ecosystems, is underrepresented within the current academic literature. To a large extent, these parameters are excluded from the estimates of technical mitigation potential, feasibility, and the tools that inform the development of policies, such as integrated assessment models (IAMs) and other large-scale models. This study aims to explore how data and information on the “contextual” factors (i.e. non-biophysical and non-technological) that influence the uptake of nature-based solutions (NbS) can be better considered in IAMs to contribute to a balanced evaluation of options for implementation. Through literature review and interviews with experts, this research aims to: (1) understand the need for incorporating societal dimensions in integrated assessments; (2) identify opportunities and bottlenecks for integration. Our results confirm our hypothesis that there are different degrees of integration and participation of external actors in the modelling process. These interactions are not fixed; the strategy often depends on the project objectives, and is often influenced by pragmatic instead of conceptual considerations. We conclude by proposing a research agenda for working towards systematic integration under various constraints between large-scale models and the social sciences for NbS.

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