The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study

Hamilton, I., Kennard, H., McGushin, A., Höglund-Isaksson, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7514-3135, Kiesewetter, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9369-9812, Lott, M., Milner, J., Purohit, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7265-6960, Rafaj, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1000-5617, Sharma, R., Springmann, M., Woodcock, J., & Watts, N. (2021). The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health 5 (2) e74-e83. 10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30249-7.

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Abstract

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying "well below 2°C", which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequate to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits. We modelled scenarios to analyse the health co-benefits of NDCs for the year 2040 for nine representative countries (ie, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK, and the USA) that were selected for their contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and their global or regional influence.

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