Optimized testing and lockdown strategies for epidemic control, case COVID-19

Neuvonen, L. (2020). Optimized testing and lockdown strategies for epidemic control, case COVID-19. IIASA YSSP Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA

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Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic poses a difficult decision making situation: Too light or late measures to control the epidemic might lead to high casualties and human suffering, too heavy measures might cause economic damage, which in turn can have far-reaching effects on human health and quality of life. Optimization is a widely used technique for dealing with complex decision making situations. Combined with epidemic and economic modeling, it can help decision makers in choosing efficient strategies for epidemic control. In this work, we propose a modeling approach to support decision making with regards to timing and strength of lockdown and testing measures. The approach combines optimization with a compartmental epidemic model to account for both spread of the disease and the role of testing and interventions, including contact tracing, in mitigating it. We provide a framework for optimizing epidemic control strategies and highlight main implications for the cases similar to COVID-19.

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