Assessing global climate change mitigation scenarios from a power system perspective using a novel multi-model framework

Brinkerink, M, Zakeri, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9647-2878, Huppmann, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7729-7389, Glynn, J., Ó Gallachóir, B., & Deane, P. (2022). Assessing global climate change mitigation scenarios from a power system perspective using a novel multi-model framework. Environmental Modelling & Software 150 e105336. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105336.

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Abstract

There is a debate within the scientific and policy making community as to the suitability of global integrated assessment models (IAMs) for long-term planning exercises of the global power system. This study informs this debate and proposes a methodological framework for soft-linking of global IAMs with detailed global power system models. With the proposed open-source framework, the scenario results from IAMs can be fed into a power system model to assess given scenarios with enhanced spatial, technological, and temporal resolution. Results from these simulations can be redirected to the IAM through iterative bi-directional soft-linking. A proof of concept application of the proposed framework is presented by linking global IAM MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM with global power system model PLEXOS-World. Among others, the results highlight that the assumption of unconstrained electricity flows inside large regional copperplates causes an overestimation of variable renewables integration potential within MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM. We propose areas for informed improvements in MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM.

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