The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Jones, C.D., Hickman, J.E., Rumbold, S.T., Walton, J., Lamboll, R.D., Skeie, R.B., Fiedler, S., Forster, P.M., et al. (2021). The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (8) e2020GL091883. 10.1029/2020GL091883.

[thumbnail of 2020GL091883.pdf]
2020GL091883.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial.

Download (2MB) | Preview
Project: Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments (CRESCENDO, H2020 641816), Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829), Climate-Carbon Interactions in the Current Century (4C, H2020 821003)


Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020–2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate. © 2021. Crown Copyright. © 2021. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: aerosol optical depth; climate perturbation; CMIP6; COVID-19 emissions reductions; CovidMIP; earth system model
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 14 May 2021 05:57
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:34

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item