A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, van Vuuren, D., Oshiro, K., Sugiyama, M., Chunark, P., Limmeechokchai, B., Mittal, S., et al. (2021). A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions. Nature Climate Change 11 471-480. 10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z.

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Project: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471)


National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 28 May 2021 09:46
Last Modified: 06 Dec 2021 10:22
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17229

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