A spatial multinomial logit model for analysing urban expansion

Krisztin, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9241-8628, Piribauer, P., & Wögerer​, M. (2021). A spatial multinomial logit model for analysing urban expansion. Spatial Economic Analysis 1-22. 10.1080/17421772.2021.1933579.

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The paper proposes a Bayesian multinomial logit model to analyse spatial patterns of urban expansion. The specification assumes that the log-odds of each class follow a spatial autoregressive process. Using recent advances in Bayesian computing, our model allows for a computationally efficient treatment of the spatial multinomial logit model. This allows us to assess spillovers between regions and across land-use classes. In a series of Monte Carlo studies, we benchmark our model against other competing specifications. The paper also showcases the performance of the proposed specification using European regional data. Our results indicate that spatial dependence plays a key role in the land-sealing process of cropland and grassland. Moreover, we uncover land-sealing spillovers across multiple classes of arable land.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: urban expansion; land-use change; spatial multinomial logit model; European regions
Research Programs: Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 05 Jul 2021 10:16
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:34
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17300

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