Uncertainty and business cycle synchronization in Europe

Crespo Cuaresma, J. (2021). Uncertainty and business cycle synchronization in Europe. Applied Economics Letters 1-7. 10.1080/13504851.2021.1939854.

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Abstract

We assess empirically the role that uncertainty plays as a determinant of business cycle synchronization dynamics in the European Monetary Union. Using a time-varying measure of business cycle synchronization and Bayesian model averaging methods, we find that increase in uncertainty tends to robustly predict desynchronization, in particular for countries whose business cycles are not in line with those of the rest of the monetary union.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Business cycle synchronization; uncertainty; European monetary union; Bayesian model averaging
Research Programs: Population and Just Societies (POPJUS)
Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Migration and Sustainable Development (MIG)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 12 Jul 2021 07:10
Last Modified: 12 Jul 2021 07:10
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17313

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