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Crespo Cuaresma, J. (2021). Uncertainty and business cycle synchronization in Europe. Applied Economics Letters 1-7. 10.1080/13504851.2021.1939854.
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Uncertainty and business cycle synchronization in Europe.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives. Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
We assess empirically the role that uncertainty plays as a determinant of business cycle synchronization dynamics in the European Monetary Union. Using a time-varying measure of business cycle synchronization and Bayesian model averaging methods, we find that increase in uncertainty tends to robustly predict desynchronization, in particular for countries whose business cycles are not in line with those of the rest of the monetary union.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Business cycle synchronization; uncertainty; European monetary union; Bayesian model averaging |
| Research Programs: | Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) > Migration and Sustainable Development (MIG) |
| Depositing User: | Luke Kirwan |
| Date Deposited: | 12 Jul 2021 07:10 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Aug 2021 17:35 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17313 |
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