A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050

van Dijk, M., Morley, T., Rau, M.L., & Saghai, Y. (2021). A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050. Nature Food 2 (7) 494-501. 10.1038/s43016-021-00322-9.

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Quantified global scenarios and projections are used to assess long-term future global food security under a range of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. Here, we conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to assess the range of future global food security projections to 2050. We reviewed 57 global food security projection and quantitative scenario studies that have been published in the past two decades and discussed the methods, underlying drivers, indicators and projections. Across five representative scenarios that span divergent but plausible socio-economic futures, the total global food demand is expected to increase by 35% to 56% between 2010 and 2050, while population at risk of hunger is expected to change by −91% to +8% over the same period. If climate change is taken into account, the ranges change slightly (+30% to +62% for total food demand and −91% to +30% for population at risk of hunger) but with no statistical differences overall. The results of our review can be used to benchmark new global food security projections and quantitative scenario studies and inform policy analysis and the public debate on the future of food.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: global food demand; hunger; food security
Research Programs: Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 22 Jul 2021 17:03
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:35
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17340

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