Meeting well-below 2°C target would increase energy sector jobs globally

Pai, S., Emmerling, J., Drouet, L., Zerriffi, H., & Jewell, J. ORCID: (2021). Meeting well-below 2°C target would increase energy sector jobs globally. One Earth 4 (7) 1026-1036. 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.005.

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Project: Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making (NAVIGATE, H2020 821124), Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471)


To limit global warming to well-below 2°C (WB2C), fossil fuels must be replaced by low-carbon energy sources. Support for this transition is often dampened by the impact on fossil fuel jobs. Previous work shows that pro-climate polices could increase employment by 20 million net energy jobs, but these studies rely on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) jobs data, assumptions about jobs in non-OECD countries, and a single baseline assumption. Here we combine a global dataset of job intensities across 11 energy technologies and five job categories in 50 countries with an integrated assessment model under three shared socioeconomic pathways. We estimate direct energy jobs under a WB2C scenario and current policy scenarios. We find that, by 2050, energy sector jobs would grow from today's 18 million to 26 million under a WB2C scenario compared with 21 million under the current policy scenario. Fossil fuel extraction jobs would rapidly decline, but losses will be compensated by gains in solar and wind jobs, particularly in the manufacturing sector (totaling 7.7 million in 2050).

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: energy transition; climate change; fossil fuel jobs; just transition; Paris Agreement; renewable energy jobs
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 26 Jul 2021 07:55
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:35

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