Who is at risk? Differential vulnerability to climate-related hazards in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil

de Assis Moreira, R. (2021). Who is at risk? Differential vulnerability to climate-related hazards in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil. IIASA YSSP Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA

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Abstract

As much as 16.5% (390,000 people) of the population of Belo Horizonte, the sixth most populous city in Brazil, live in areas prone to hydrometeorological risk such as floods, landslides, mudslides, and other extreme events related to rainfall patterns. People living in high-risk areas of urban centers are particularly vulnerable due to a combination of lack of access to public services, socioeconomic disadvantages, and exposure to environmental extreme events such as heatwaves, storms and mass movements. There is however a lack of knowledge on who lives in areas at risk and who has been relocated. This study thus investigates whether and to what extent the population living in such areas differ from the relocated population and the general population.
Based on the data from 2010 Brazilian Census and the municipal registers of relocation between 2010 and 2020, we explore demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of: 1) the inhabitants of areas at risk; 2) populations resettled from risk areas between 2010 and 2020; 3)and the city’s general population. This approach allows to capture the interactions between social, economic, and demographic factors underlying vulnerability, and consequently enabling the understanding of differential vulnerability of those at risk and those permanently resettled from areas threatened by environmental stress. We find that while those relocated permanently compared to those relocated temporarily are more likely to have been exposed to heavy rainfall, they tend to have higher income and live with a partner and children. These results can be used to differentiate demographic and socioeconomic profiles of the temporary and permanently relocated populations and further provide information for policymakers about differential vulnerability and resettlement in the context of climate risk.

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