Modelling water resources management for climate change adaptation in Austrian agriculture. The case of Seewinkel.

Valencia Cotera, R. (2021). Modelling water resources management for climate change adaptation in Austrian agriculture. The case of Seewinkel. IIASA YSSP Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA

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Abstract

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and duration of droughts. During the last decades, Europe has experienced a series of heatwaves and droughts (2003, 2010, 2013, 2015, 2018 and 2019). Countries, which were originally considered water rich, are now experiencing precipitation deficits, which affect agricultural productivity. Adaptation of agriculture to climate change is therefore critical to ensure food security. Water management is a crucial aspect to adapt agriculture to climate change. The semi-arid region of Seewinkel in Austria was taken as a case study. Seewinkel requires especial attention due to its extensive agriculture and its unique biosphere of saline lakes (IUCN classified area). Local stakeholders have suggested adaptation measures requiring analysis with impact models to reduce uncertainty. Using system dynamics, an impact model for Seewinkel was developed to serve as a tool for water policy analysis. The model considers the interactions between the local aquifer, water extractions by agriculture and the saline lakes. The model was calibrated using local historical observational data and it will be forced using projected climate data (EURO-CORDEX) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP)s. Because this is a work in progress, model validation and testing of adaptation measures under climate change scenarios are still in development.

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