Long-term energy storage assessment to adapt to climate change: study case of Brazil

De Assis Brasil Weber, N. (2021). Long-term energy storage assessment to adapt to climate change: study case of Brazil. IIASA YSSP Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA

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Abstract

Brazil has one of the most renewable energy matrices in the world, consequently, is exposed to energy variability and availability modifications. An efficient solution to overcome renewable energy variability is to increase its energy storage capacity with different technologies and sources. This type of measure can be characterized as an adaptation strategy to rise above climate change impacts. Electricity system adaptation requires adequate information on uncertainties and vulnerabilities in order to identify needs and appropriate adaptation options to sustain availability and increase reliability. Thus, this study intends to close some research gaps by developing an integrated modeling framework of the electricity system associated with forward-looking information on climate change to determine a least-cost electricity portfolio adapted to future climate conditions. To this end, is proposed a methodology that links an energy system optimization model – MESSAGEix - to regional climate model simulations. Also, Seasonal Pump Hydropower Storage (SPHS) technologies are added as an adaptation strategy to support renewable energy production. Results compute the variability indicators of wind power, solar power, and hydropower potential for each grid cell of the Brazilian territory for different scenarios of global climate change proposed by the IPCC (climate variables data extracted from CORDEX experiment). Variability indicators are obtained by comparing the yearly mean data values of the historical period (1971-2005) with mean data values of future projections (2006-2100). The variability results are used to estimate the future capacity factors of wind power and solar power, and to determine the future water natural inflow of the hydropower. In sequence, these new values were set as an input to the MESSAGEix model of the Brazilian electrical system for each RCP scenario. In wind power potential case was projected to have higher variability than solar power potential. Although, in some regions, such as in the Northeast, there is a tendency for growth in the potential for wind energy production. Solar power potential had lower variability in all scenarios, which means it is expected to be a stable source of energy. MESSAGEix-Br model main results show a complementarity between wind power and hydropower. In the wet period in which there is a more natural inflow of water there is an increase in wind power generation. The model, also, points out that is better to invest in SPHS in a scenario with more water availability, which is the RCP 2.6 scenario. In the other cases, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the model shows it is more feasible to invest in wind power generation than investing in SPHS.

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