Carbon Dioxide Removal Governance in Practice: Assessing developments in Brazil, China, India and Russia

Schenuit, F. (2021). Carbon Dioxide Removal Governance in Practice: Assessing developments in Brazil, China, India and Russia. IIASA YSSP Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA

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Abstract

Deliberately removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is an important building block of decarbonization pathways in line with the climate targets agreed in the Paris Agreement. The new ENGAGE model intercomparison project provides scenarios that aim at reducing temperature overshoot and reduce the amount of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) by avoiding global net negative emissions. To achieve global net CO2 emissions by mid-century, however, scenarios require some regions to turn to achieve net-negative CO2 emissions. This raises important questions about the distribution of future CDR deployment across world regions and the feasibility of CDR deployment in different societal and political contexts. In this report, we focus on Brazil, China, India, and Russia, emerging economies located in regions that are – according to the model results – expected to deploy large amounts of CDR. Our analysis is an attempt to provide a systematic analysis of how the issue of CDR is currently being addressed politically in these countries. In a second step, we start an analysis of possible explanatory factors for the differences.
We propose a two-layered analytical framework to assess CDR-readiness and possible explanatory factors for differences across the four countries. In a first step, we systematically gather empirical material to assess the level of CDR-related regulation and the stages of CDR innovation. Following a synthesis of the results, we explore possible explanatory factors for the differences we identify. By investigating factors like state capacity and innovation performance we extend the analysis beyond geophysical potentials and aim at contributing to the broader debate of socio-political and institutional feasibility of large-scale CDR in different societal and political contexts. Furthermore, the results also contribute to the emerging literature on CDR governance case studies, which is so far limited to OECD countries.
Since the research project is still ongoing, this report presents our initial findings. As the project progresses, an ongoing consultation with country experts will allow for a more detailed analysis of the cases. In addition, a more detailed operationalization of explanatory factors should allow for a more comprehensive understanding of the reasons for differences across countries. To conclude this interim report, we propose working hypotheses that could inform future work on the political and institutional feasibility of large-scale CDR deployment and on the constraining and enabling conditions for effective CDR policy and governance.

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