Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

Kikstra, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Vinca, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3051-178X, Lovat, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4331-980X, Boza-Kiss, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4005-2481, van Ruijven, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5892, Wilson, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8164-3566, Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Zakeri, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9647-2878, Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883, & Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498 (2021). Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes. Nature Energy 6 1114-1123. 10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8.

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.

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