Historical precedents and feasibility of rapid coal and gas decline required for the 1.5°C target

Vinichenko, V., Cherp, A., & Jewell, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2846-9081 (2021). Historical precedents and feasibility of rapid coal and gas decline required for the 1.5°C target. One Earth 4 (10) 1477-1490. 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.09.012.

Preview	Text PIIS2590332221005340.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (1MB) | Preview
Preview	Text mmc1.pdf - Supplemental Material Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (3MB) | Preview
	Archive mmc2.zip - Supplemental Material Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (16kB)

Abstract

To limit global warming to 1.5°C, fossil fuel use must rapidly decline, but historical precedents for such large-scale transitions are lacking. Here we identify 147 historical episodes and policy pledges of fossil fuel decline in 105 countries and global regions between 1960 and 2018. We analyze 43 cases in larger systems most relevant to climate scenarios. One-half of 1.5°C-compatible scenarios envision coal decline in Asia faster than in any of these cases. The remaining scenarios as well as many scenarios for coal and gas decline in other regions have precedents only where oil was replaced by coal, gas, or nuclear power in response to energy security threats. Achieving the 1.5°C target will be difficult in the absence of fossil fuel decline mechanisms that extend far beyond historical experience or current pledges.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT)
Related URLs:	Dataset - https://zenodo.org/record/5532577 Dataset - https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3363345
Depositing User:	Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited:	22 Oct 2021 18:15
Last Modified:	09 Sep 2024 12:50
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17600

Actions (login required)

View Item