A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts

Sognnaes, I., Gambhir, A., van de Ven, D.-J., Nikas, A., Anger-Kraavi, A., Bui, H., Campagnolo, L., Delpiazzo, E., et al. (2021). A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts. Nature Climate Change 11 1055-1062. 10.1038/s41558-021-01206-3.

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Official URL: https://rdcu.be/cBRu4
Project: Delivering on the Paris Agreement: A demand-driven, integrated assessment modelling approach (PARIS REINFORCE, H2020 820846)


Most of the integrated assessment modelling literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse integrated assessment models, we project global energy CO2 emissions trajectories on the basis of near-term mitigation efforts and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030. Despite finding a wide range of emissions by 2050, nearly all the scenarios have median warming of less than 3 °C in 2100. However, the most optimistic scenario is still insufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C. We furthermore highlight key modelling choices inherent to projecting where emissions are headed. First, emissions are more sensitive to the choice of integrated assessment model than to the assumed mitigation effort, highlighting the importance of heterogeneous model intercomparisons. Differences across models reflect diversity in baseline assumptions and impacts of near-term mitigation efforts. Second, the common practice of using economy-wide carbon prices to represent policy exaggerates carbon capture and storage use compared with explicitly modelling policies.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
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Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 23 Nov 2021 08:39
Last Modified: 14 Mar 2022 16:28
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17653

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