Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Drouet, L., Bosetti, V., Padoan, S.A., Aleluia Reis, L., Bertram, C., Dalla Longa, F., Després, J., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883, Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Harmsen, M., Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Oshiro, K., Nogueira, L.P., Paroussos, L., Piontek, F., Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, et al. (2021). Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change. Nature Climate Change 11 1070-1076. 10.1038/s41558-021-01218-z.

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Abstract

Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	30 Nov 2021 07:38
Last Modified:	29 May 2022 03:00
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17679

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