Short- and long-term warming effects of methane may affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and benefits of low-meat diets

Pérez-Domínguez, I., del Prado, A., Mittenzwei, K., Hristov, J., Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Tabeau, A., Witzke, P., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, van Meijl, H., Lynch, J., Stehfest, E., Pardo, G., Barreiro-Hurle, J., Koopman, J.F.L., & Sanz-Sánchez, M.J. (2021). Short- and long-term warming effects of methane may affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and benefits of low-meat diets. Nature Food 10.1038/s43016-021-00385-8.

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Abstract

Methane’s short atmospheric life has important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture. Three different agricultural economic models are used to explore how short- and long-term warming effects of methane can affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and dietary transitions. Results show that the choice of a particular metric for methane’s warming potential is key to determine optimal mitigation options, with metrics based on shorter-term impacts leading to greater overall emission reduction. Also, the promotion of low-meat diets is more effective at reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared to carbon pricing when mitigation policies are based on metrics that reflect methane’s long-term behaviour. A combination of stringent mitigation measures and dietary changes could achieve substantial emission reduction levels, helping reverse the contribution of agriculture to global warming.

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