Probabilistic Risk Management in Project Portfolios

Ekenberg, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0665-1889 & Danielson, M. (2021). Probabilistic Risk Management in Project Portfolios. In: Proceedings of the Twelveth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. 6-9 July 2021, University of Granada, Granada, Spain. pp. 341-364 ML Research Press.

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Abstract

We discuss a novel method for business risk handling in project portfolios under strong uncertainty, where we utilise event trees including adverse consequences together with mitigation costs and expected effects, where consequence and event probabilities and costs are represented by random parameters. The method has been developed to support large-scale real-life applications of portfolio risk management, where the properties of the probabilities and values are entered by domain experts with often very limited knowledge of probability theory, and we demonstrate how this can be accomplished with minor information loss. The method is currently in use in one of the world’s largest telecom equipment manufacturers which has a vast project portfolio of tenders, with each successful tender subsequently becoming an order in the order book portfolio.

Item Type:	Book Section
Additional Information:	International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, 6-9 July 2021, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
Research Programs:	Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT)
Depositing User:	Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited:	17 Dec 2021 09:55
Last Modified:	29 Apr 2024 12:37
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17712

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