A Risk-Informed Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation through Robust Land Use and Irrigation Planning

Ermolieva, T., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Kahil, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7812-5271, Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Skalský, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0983-6897, Ermoliev, Y., Knopov, P.S., et al. (2022). A Risk-Informed Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation through Robust Land Use and Irrigation Planning. Sustainability 14 (3) p. 1430. 10.3390/su14031430.

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Abstract

Uncertainty and variability are key challenges for climate change adaptation planning. In the face of uncertainty, decision-making can be addressed in two interdependent stages: make only partial ex ante anticipative actions to keep options open until new information is revealed, and adapt the first-stage decisions with respect to newly acquired information. This decision-making approach corresponds to the two-stage stochastic optimization (STO) incorporating both anticipative ex ante and adaptive ex post decisions within a single model. This paper develops a two-stage STO model for climate change adaptation through robust land use and irrigation planning under conditions of uncertain water supply. The model identifies the differences between decision-making in the cases of perfect information, full uncertainty, and two-stage STO from the perspective of learning about uncertainty. Two-stage anticipative and adaptive decision-making with safety constraints provides risk-informed decisions characterized by quantile-based Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk risk measures. The ratio between the ex ante and ex post costs and the shape of uncertainty determine the balance between the anticipative and adaptive decisions. Selected numerical results illustrate that the alteration of the ex ante agricultural production costs can affect crop production, management technologies, and natural resource utilization.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change; systemic risks; robust land use and irrigation; robust anticipative and adaptive decisions; two-stage STO; safety constraints; VaR and CVaR risk measures
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Cooperation and Transformative Governance (CAT)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Agriculture, Forestry, and Ecosystem Services (AFE)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Water Security (WAT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 21 Feb 2022 08:07
Last Modified: 21 Feb 2022 08:07
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17806

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