Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security

Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Wu, W,, Doelman, J,, Frank, S, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Hristov, J,, Kyle, P,, Sands, R,, van Zeist, W,-J,, et al. (2022). Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security. Nature Food 3 (2) 110-121. 10.1038/s43016-022-00464-4.

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Project: Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471), Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making (NAVIGATE, H2020 821124)

Abstract

Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases—but without distinguishing these strategies’ individual effects under different conditions. Using six global agroeconomic models, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO2 emissions reduction, bioenergy production and afforestation—may change food security and agricultural market conditions under 2 °C climate-stabilization scenarios. Results show that afforestation (often simulated in the models by imposing carbon prices on land carbon stocks) could have a large impact on food security relative to non-CO2 emissions policies (generally implemented as emissions taxes). Respectively, these measures put an additional 41.9 million and 26.7 million people at risk of hunger in 2050 compared with the current trend scenario baseline. This highlights the need for better coordination in emissions reduction and agricultural market management policies as well as better representation of land use and associated greenhouse gas emissions in modelling.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 02 Mar 2022 10:12
Last Modified: 02 Mar 2022 10:12
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17823

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