Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation

Wilson, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8164-3566, Guivarch, C., Kriegler, E., van Ruijven, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5892, van Vuuren, D.P., Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Schwanitz, V.J., & Thompson, E.L. (2021). Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation. Climatic Change 166 (1-2) e3. 10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9.

[img]
Preview
Text
Wilson2021_Article_EvaluatingProcess-basedIntegra.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (1MB) | Preview
Project: Advanced Model Development and Validation for Improved Analysis of Costs and Impacts of Mitigation Policies (ADVANCE, FP7 308329), Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates (AMPERE, FP7 265139)

Abstract

Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 21 Mar 2022 12:00
Last Modified: 21 Mar 2022 12:00
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17879

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item